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What has happened in the past two months?

It doesn鈥檛 feel like only two months have passed since Donald Trump took office as the 47^th US President on 20 January 2025.

The world of trade as we know it has been shaken to the ground and more uncertainty and instability is due to come.

On his first day as President of the United States, Trump released the 鈥楢merica First Trade Policy鈥� document, outlining his trade agenda and work programme.

Key points of the memorandum of relevance to the agriculture sector are:

• a trade policy that benefits all sections of American society, farmers included
• an investigation into the causes of the US trade deficit in goods and recommendations to redress the deficit (eg, tariffs)
• identify countries with which the US can negotiate agreements to achieve market access for American businesses.

Trading partners breathed a sigh of relief when President Trump announced that the tariffs were not going to be implemented on day one, as he had promised during his electoral campaign, but only after the administration had the chance to produce reports to inform the decisions on tariffs.

However, the results of those investigations haven鈥檛 been published yet but the date of 鈥渢ariff day鈥� or 鈥渓iberation day鈥�, as the US administration calls it, is now set for 2 April, with tariffs coming into effect immediately after.

What we can expect from 鈥榯ariff day鈥�

This policy goes against the WTO (World Trade Organisation) agreements and the principles of trade without discrimination and to respect agreed ceilings on tariff levels that were set through prior negotiations at the WTO.

Many countries, including the UK and the EU, have been in close contact with the US representatives to try and negotiate a deal that would grant them exemptions from the tariffs.

On 27 February, during a joint press conference, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced that work was in motion on a new economic deal.

The UK Government鈥檚 intention was to focus on technological innovation, but the US has made clear that a deal would have to include agriculture.

What鈥檚 at stake for UK agriculture?

Looking at agriculture trade between the UK and the US, the sectors most exposed and reliant on the US market will be the worst affected by tariffs.

In 2024, the top three UK agri-related exports to the US were:

• spirits for a total of 拢1.2 billion (including Scotch whisky and gin),
• fish (拢244 million), with salmon being the most popular category, and
• beer (拢126 million).

The US is the second largest export market for UK agri-food beyond the EU, with more than 拢2.5 billion export trade in 2024 (with over 拢33 million worth of meat, 拢75 million of cheese, over 拢14 million of malt and over 拢11 million of fertilised poultry eggs).

The UK and US started trade negotiations in May 2020, but they were paused during the first Trump administration and haven鈥檛 resumed during the successive Biden鈥檚 administration given the focus on domestic issues.

Today, the four presidents of the UK farming unions have issued a stark warning amid media reports on both sides of the Atlantic of a potential trade deal to avoid reciprocal tariffs from 2 April.

In a joint statement, the farming unions鈥� Presidents said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 extremely concerning to see media reports that the UK Government is trying to avoid US tariffs by seeking an urgent trade deal.

鈥淲hile we do not want to see tariffs on UK agri-food going into the US, our second largest export market beyond the EU, it means our negotiators are on the back foot from the get-go and makes a balanced negotiation incredibly difficult.鈥�

Read the statement in full.